Expressed Interest

One thing is clear: no more subscriptions that go unused.

See Part #1 for information on upgrading to the iPhone 4.

In my opinion, the iPhone is the smartphone standard; all other phones are compared against it.  It's extremely popular, and depending on the user, data-hungry.  The congestion caused by the popularity of the phone brings AT&T's data network to it's knees, even when people are just trying to order the phone.  Could Verizon handle the iPhone?  I'm not sure.  But if you use an iPhone in the U.S. right now, you need AT&T. A recent change in the data plans offered by AT&T suddenly make a smartphone upgrade complicated and thought-provoking.  Kyle requested I put some of my thoughts down here because she was sick of hearing me talk about it.  How much can I agonize over a phone, after all? If the phone wasn't so damn smart, maybe I'd have an easier time.

The Plans

I own an iPhone 3G, so I pay $30/month for an unlimited data plan (no cap on the amount I can upload/download).  Anyone who doesn't change out of this plan gets it grandfathered in for their next phone (i.e. the iPhone 4), but you can't add tethering.  NOTE: I don't care about tethering, so for me, that part is irrelevant. There are two new plans that are now the official plans.  You can't buy the unlimited plan above if you buy a phone today.  You can get: DataPlus – 200 MB of data for $15/month.  If you exceed 200 MB, you'll get each additional 200 MB of data usage for $15. DataPro - 2 GB of data for $25 per month.  If you exceed 2 GB, you'll get each additional 1 GB of data for $10. At least with these plans, you can track your usage at any time with the AT&T app on the iPhone.  But questions abound.

What About Now?

On the surface, the word "unlimited" is enticing.  Originally, that was a selling point for the iPhone on the AT&T network; you "didn't have to worry" about your data usage.  That attitude drowned the network, so now they have to adjust expectations.  But for those with the old plan, is it worth the extra $5 or $15 each month? My usage has averaged around 250 MB a month, but I've had some months below 200 MB, the upper limit of the smaller DataPlus plan.  I'm tempted to try and choke my usage to save money and avoid data-hungry applications.  It's also worth noting that this is only for 3G; anything on WiFi is un-metered.

What About Soon?

If/when I upgrade to the iPhone 4, will my usage change?  The new phone allows at least 2 features that can eat bandwidth very quickly:

• Netflix streaming over 3G
• Pandora streaming over 3G in the background (this would work in the office)

Both of those sound awesome, to be honest.  It would really increase the value of the Pandora application if it could continue streaming while checking the web browser, email, etc.  And I already subscribe to the Netflix service, and if you do, the app is free.  Not to mention any new apps that haven't come out yet, and the conversion of other apps to the new background-friendly environment.  ESPN Radio, anyone?  NPR?  GPS?  And so on. My current usage probably doesn't reflect my future usage on the iPhone 4.  So how much will my data use increase?  Double?  Triple?  Even if my usage tripled and I had no chance of fitting under the DataPlus plan, the DataPro plan will be only half-utilized.  Could I stream enough over 30 days to reach 2 GB?  I haven't even come close yet since I've owned an iPhone.  My highest data point is a little over 400 MB.

Potential Conclusions

The data plan is still an open question for me; I haven't switched off my unlimited plan yet.  But each month I use less than 2 GB is $5 wasted, and any month I fit under the DataPlus plan means I'm paying double for data.  Yikes.  At the moment, I'm leaning towards switching to the DataPro plan for the money back in my pocket.  Still, with the advancements in smartphones, and more specifically the iPhone 4, I could regret not hanging on to "unlimited" for as long as I can.

See Part #2 for details on the AT&T Data Plans.

For an iPhone 3G user, the Glen "Big Baby" Davis-style drooling has begun:

Yeah, that burning sensation is tech envy. The first big decision: is the new model worth it?  You'd think this would be the main decision for a current iPhone user.  It's easier than you think if you own an iPhone 3G (assuming you've got the money to upgrade).  Let's look at what changes model to model. (NOTE: If you own an original iPhone and are still using it, you should upgrade.  You're really missing out on some killer features.  Even if you go to 3GS, the performance will impress you.  Not to mention, if I see it in person, I'll give you a hard time.  Because I can.)

iPhone 3G -> iPhone 3GS: What's New?

• Faster Processor (strong performance gain, compared side-by-side)
• Upgraded camera (don't use this much)
• Video recording (don't thins I'd use this much either)
• Upgraded Network compatibility
• New compass
• Inline remote control
• Larger battery
• All iOS4 features

Bottom line: The performance gains alone make it a better phone, because every app is snappier.  The camera/video stuff doesn't excite me.

iPhone 3GS -> iPhone 4: What's New?

• Upgraded display (doubled resolution, looks like it will make a huge difference)
• Video chat (only iPhone 4 to iPhone 4, not a big deal in my book)
• Upgraded camera with Flash and front camera (see 3GS)
• Upgraded WiFi/Network support (Wireless-N, will help in certain places)
• A4 Processor (same as iPad, unclear what the performance gains will be)
• Gyroscope (mainly a gaming feature)
• Second microphone to help block background noise (this is a great feature)
• Upgraded battery (again)
• New form factor (it looks nice, but this doesn't affect usage)

Bottom line: That screen might be enough by itself.  Add in more battery and the new look, and it's a nice set of new features.

My Take

If you own a 3GS, I don't see a whole lot in that list that will make the iPhone 4 upgrade a "must".  There is also the software update coming soon (iOS4), and 3GS owners will get every feature from that as well.  What's the rush?  Waiting another year might get you to the next model (iPhone 5, iPhone 4G, whatever.) For 3G owners (that's me), it's time.  You get two lists of upgrades (above), and the speed boost will be ridiculous.  Done, right?  Not quite. Part #2 will cover AT&T and the data plans.  That's a whole different world that affects the upgrade decision.

The NBA undoubtedly has the most stars that are likely to change teams this summer.  Here’s the best-of list (this doesn’t include potential trades):

• Lebron James
• Dwyane Wade
• Chris Bosh
• Amare Stoudemire
• Dirk Nowitzki
• Joe Johnson
• Carlos Boozer 
• Rudy Gay
• Yao Ming 

Hot damn, that’s could be as much as a billion dollars in contract money over the rest of those players’ careers.  But Lebron will demand the most attention, because he could get paid the most money if he stayed with his current team, the Cleveland Cavaliers.  It’s his hometown, and he’s the most important personality in the state.  He is Cleveland.

But he probably won’t stay, because he wants to build his legacy.  His teammates didn’t show up in the playoffs, and he probably doesn’t expect them to moving forward either.

Likelihood he’ll leave: 7 of 10

“Thanks for all the memories.  I’m so happy I got out!” – Donovan McNabb

I debated on what would be Donovan’s quote.  “My team doesn’t want me anymore” is accurate but he’s probably said that already, and “F&$# off!” just isn’t his style.  And I know this trade already went through, but it’s so ridiculous that the Eagles traded him within the division.  Maybe they want the controversy.  Also, this gem came later from McNabb:

I look back — the things that I set out that I wanted to accomplish and bring back to Philadelphia I wasn’t able to, and I apologize more than anything to the people of Philadelphia, not bringing that Super Bowl to them.

Ego-trippin’.  At least there’s the Phillies and Flyers.

Likelihood he’ll leave: He already did.

“I’m the greatest at fake retirements ever.  Nothing like skipping training camp.” – Brett Favre

Anyone who’s asked me or been in the room when Favre has come up knows my opinion.  I think he’s old, I think he’s insanely annoying, and I don’t think he’s a very good quarterback.  Alright, alright, fine.  The quote from me earlier this year was “he absolutely stinks,” which may have been a slight overstatement.  But he certainly can milk a news cycle.  He’s very lucky he found a team (the Vikings) that will literally sit by the food bowl for months to see if ol’ Uncle Brett will drop them a few measly scraps of pork rind.  “He has as much time as he needs” chirps Brad Childress, the only NFL coach that wears a dress most of the offseason.

I digress.  Brett will almost certainly play again for the Vikings this season, and everybody will be cheering him on.  Even me…just to see how high he can build his all-time-interceptions-in-a-career record.  Make sure no one else can get there, Chief Wrangler!

Likelihood he’ll come back: 9 of 10

“It truly breaks my heart to go to the best team in the world.” – Cesc Fabregas

He’s my favorite soccer player, so pour a nice pint-size glass of bias whenever you’re thirsty.  The situation: he’s Spanish, grew up idolizing the Barcelona squad, and wanted to play for them from day one.  Arsenal saw his talent, brought him to England, his manager (Wenger) made him the centerpiece of the team, and they had a huge amount of success.  Now the team is faltering (5 years without a trophy), and Cesc is good enough to play anywhere in the world he wants.

There’s just this pesty thing called a contract.  He has one.

I would love him to stay for one more season, but fans that have followed the team longer than me have been saying that for a couple seasons now.  The reality is, if his heart isn’t in it anymore, he won’t be the player he has been on the field for Arsenal.  So if he goes, I’ll be disappointed.

He’s worth every part of 50 million pounds.  Do you hear me, Arsène?  50 million minimum.  And I might just watch a few more Barcelona games if he goes.

Likelihood he’ll leave: 8 of 10